I don't write on this blog much anymore. The reasons are numerous. I'm 32, I'm not single and most of my readers have traded in their Tory Burch clutch for a giant mom bag full of diapers. It's fine, I don't hold it against you. But it is a bit shocking that even the 'younger kids' from college are now in full blown 'I have a family' mode while I stayed up until 9am last Saturday making questionable life decisions. Whatever floats your boat right? A lot of my contemporaries always looked forward to getting married and having children, I always looked forward to watching the sunrise and spending Sundays in bed ordering delivery and watching Netflix. We're both living our dream.
One thing has caught my attention lately, a topic that I am undoubtedly an expert on: bro culture. What specifically interests me is the rise of hard seltzer and White Claw. Well, I am here today to weigh in on the debate, and to accurately predict who will win the war. So whether you want to make sure you look the coolest at Homecoming this October (I'll be there by the way) or you're looking for a hot stock tip that might fund that lake house purchase later this year, pay close attention to the next few paragraphs, and maybe you'll learn a thing or two.
It begins...
The first time I heard about White Claw was Halloween 2018. Someone invited me to a pregame that was going to be "flowing with white claws" which I assumed was some archaic colloquialism that indicated cocaine. You can imagine my surprise when I showed up to said party and saw the aforementioned White Claws, a thin white can with a large wave inviting you to crack one and let your troubles wash away like a midnight tide.
After spending the better part of a decade in a writer's room, I was familiar with the seltzer craze. Writers pound grapefruit La Croix like I slam whiskeys at an open bar wedding. However, I had never seen the 'hard' version before. I took a sip and as predicted it was disgusting and I moved on to a shot of Fireball because some things never change.
I didn't see much more of the Claws until the spring, at this point a challenger had emerged; Truly. Similarly packaged though with a slightly more feminine touch. I figured hard seltzers were intended for women that didn't want to be seen hammering beers all day. Perhaps they were more 'lady-like.' Maybe a woman ordering a hard seltzer didn't feel as guilty drinking a refreshing beverage on a warm summer day as she would being the only one at the pool guzzling down a thick double IPA. The drink was however marketed similarly as the Virginia Slim cigarette, it's not as bad for you because it's skinny and at a casual 5% ABV no one would actually become intoxicated on these.
Lifestyle Brand
My initial assumptions proved to be false as I attended a Joshua Tree excursion at the beginning of the summer. White Claw meme culture was just setting in, but it wasn't until I arrived at a pool party of privileged white males listening to 'Kygo' and sipping on Black Cherry Claws that I knew exactly what had happened.
The bros had co-opted seltzer culture.
It makes sense if you think about it. The crisp refreshing taste of a hard seltzer embodies the care free lifestyle that most former rich Greeks strive for. No stress, no consequences, laid back, having a good time. I heard some guy announce "Ain't no laws when you're on the claws" before doing a cannonball into the pool, thoroughly soaking everyone in attendance. It's just got a better ring to it than "Gettin unruly on the Truly."
I decided to give the White Claw another chance and this time I realized I quite enjoyed it, not because the taste had changed, but because White Claw had become a lifestyle brand, the brand of people that wear backward hats, flip flops, polos, comically short shorts, and think that while Trump is a pretty bad president, eh, they'll be fine.
Hot girl summer was here and as long as we had Claws on deck it might never end.
A New Challenger Emerges
In some circles there continued to be a debate of seltzer supremacy between White Claws and Truly. We haven't seen such a fierce split in this country since the rise of identity politics or the Harry Potter sorting hat quiz first went online. But over time, White Claw pulled ahead for a substantial lead. Bon & Viv and Truly hung on for relevance as a second and third respective choice whenever White Claws were sold out (quite common). Though it seemed the Claws would be the drink of choice for 18-35 year olds without student debt moving forward.
Then on Monday August 12th, everything changed.
Natty Light, the preferred cheap beer of frats everywhere introduced two new hard seltzers 'The Catalina Lime Mixer' and 'Aloha Beaches' which cleverly sounds like 'bitches' if you say it in a funny accent. After successfully launching Naturdays last year, it seemed that this newly self-aware Natty Light could be primed to take out the alpha dog.
But that wasn't all. Shortly thereafter PBR threw their name into the ring...but the biggest bomb came later that night when Four Loko, yes the Four Loko that used to make you shit yourself in 2010 and then wake up two days later in a bush, was also entering the Seltzer Wars.
I knew at that exact moment what I was put on this Earth to do. Now without further ado, let's break down the competitors.
Four Loko
ABV: 14%
Target: Alcoholics, frat guys, poor people
Coming in at a 14% ABV in a 24 ounce can, it seems like Four Loko's entry is more of a stunt. During welcome week parties in the Big Ten some guy named Chad will show up with these at a pregame and it will be fucking hilarious. The next thing that will happen is Chad and his friend Jenny will wake up in jail because they drank six of these and then broke into some townie's house and started barking at his dog.
While the original Four Loko served the purpose of blacking you out as quickly and as cheaply as possible, hard seltzers pride themselves on being drinkable, one of the few adult beverages that you can enjoy all day and then still have a chance of making it out that night. If you were to drink two large Four Loko seltzers at noon you will undoubtedly have wet your bed by 7pm. So while I endorse this move in my capacity as an unofficial Four Loko brand ambassador, I don't see this taking off, though it could certainly lead to some fraternity hijinks ie 'icing' in the near future.
PBR
ABV: 8%
Target: Poor Hipsters
The PBR entry is really confusing to me. PBR is the official drink of hipsters, specifically poor hipsters. Pull up to any bar in Silverlake and you can see a guy with a well manicured beard sucking on a can of the ribbon. Maybe it's because he's from Wisconsin, maybe it's because becoming a performance artist isn't really paying the bills. One thing is for certain, that guys was a fucking GDI and he hates frat guys, therefore he hates this whole trend. Every time this guy hears 'Saturdays are for the Boys' he dies a little inside. This guy is actively cyber bullying Joe Biden on Twitter because Joe isn't going to forgive his student debt for the Art History degree he got at Cal State Northridge.
The 8% PBR may have filled the comedy role when it was conceived, but the moment Four Loko doubled down with its entry, PBR lost all strategic positioning. The only corner they have left is to be the 'working man's seltzer,' but then again, union guys probably think hard seltzer is for girls and libs. I expect this to be a total disaster and be pulled off the shelves by the end of 2019.
Bon & Viv
ABV: 4.5%
Target: Women, Health Conscious
Bon & Viv is the Ravenclaw of hard or "spiked" seltzers. It's nobodies favorite, but it's generally agreed upon that out of the Big 3, it is number two. Neither a Truly person or a White Claw person would take offense to drinking a B&V (I thought they were called Bon Ivers for two months). Following in the tradition of the Bartles and Jaymes, Zima Mike's Hard and Smirnoff Ice, B&V is geared largely toward women. It features a super rad can with two mermaids, has 90 calories and zero grams of sugar while still packing 4.5% alcohol. An anorexic could drink this shit and convince herself that she wouldn't get fat.
The slightly lower alcohol content also means that a person on-the-go can have a few of these and then drive to pick up their kids without the risk of a DUI. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gen X really grasp onto these and also folks in the athletic community. I've done a few triathlons and seen way too many people drinking Miller 64, now they have an alternative.
Natty
ABV: 6%
Target: Bros, College
When I was in college Natty's marketing machine was fairly quiet. They were the budget arm of Anheuser Busch and that was that. Meanwhile Keystone Light dominated the frat scene at my college because everyone was trying to find a god damn orange can. Well AB must have noticed because shortly after my graduation, Natty really started leaning into the college scene sponsoring Barstool heroes like Smylie Kaufman, throwing epic tailgate parties and even launching a pink lemonade beer called Naturdays. Last year they even launched a 77 pack in certain liquor stores in Maryland.
The question is not whether or not Natty seltzer will catch on anywhere; it will. The question is can it go mainstream? You're certain to see cases of this shit at your local Sigma Chi chapter during homecoming, but will 20somethings at the Manhattan Beach Open be crushing these on the Strand this weekend? It's hard to say. Another thing that is synonymous with hard seltzer is an 'elite' lifestyle. Natty is clearly not elite. They've already publicly stated that their price point will be $3 less than White Claw. They don't want the Hollywood Hills parties, though you'll find them at plenty in Westwood.
Truly
ABV: 5%
Target: Contrarians, People that don't want to be associated w/ bro culture
Where did it go wrong for Truly? It launched around the same time as White Claw in 2016 and enjoyed a fairly anonymous run its first two years. In fact, you could say that Truly got off to a better start when the hard seltzer craze was just starting to bubble in 2018. Though since then it's been all Claw. White Claw was the largest growth brand in the world the week of July 4th this year because, well no shit. Is there a bigger holiday for the bros? It's not all negative for Truly though. All ships rise with the tide. The segment was up to 500 million last year and the year over year growth for hard seltzer was 200% in April, long before the trend peaked.
Furthermore, the more Claws get associated with bros, the more some folks will choose to distance themselves from it. Despite the fact that I have never met someone that doesn't love to absolutely rip it on the weekends, apparently there are people that think being a 'bro' is a bad thing. (They all work for Vox and love to talk about their depression) There will continue to be room for Truly even if it will climb the top of the mountain. As the great Ric Flair once said, 'To be the man, you gotta beat the man.'
White Claw
ABV: 5%
Target: Bros, hot chicks that know they're hot, center-right millennials, trust fund kids, the elite
There likely hasn't been a trend that grasped a community this hard since Fireball came out in 2012. You might remember staggering around a tailgate field and watching people pass around this bottle of cinnamon elixir. They all looked the same, they were all smiling, they hadn't a care in the world. A hit at every wedding, lake day or otherwise, Fireball completely enraptured the world. Four Loko did so before Fireball. Jagermeister did so before Four Loko. You may have seen the memes that Four Lokos walked so White Claws could run. It's an apt comparison. Somehow White Claw became the official drink of every person whose dad owns a dealership. With a divided nation politically and everyone on social media having a fucking 'brand' associating yourself with one that screams youthful ignorance, generational wealth and a bit of blissful apathy doesn't seem that bad. White Claw people go on cool vacations. White Claw people party with their shirts off. White Claw people worry about things later. The question is, how long do the Claws stay on top?
If trendy booze has taught us anything, the Claws have a good 2-3 years before they become stale. Then they'll slip into comical nostalgia like the guy that brings a bottle of Jager to a party in 2019. I predict it will have slightly better staying power as White Claw has become the category leader in a somewhat new space. As long as hard seltzers are around, White Claw will be relevant, but no one lives forever and the sad downfall of White Claw will eventually be a story you read on Buzz Feed. But let's not think about that now, let's shotgun a claw and raise a toast to the dog days of summer '19.
Official Rankings
1. White Claw
2. Natty
3. Bon & Viv
4. Truly
5. Four Loko
6. PBR
