2018 Oscar Preview

Welcome to the 2018 SingleDudeinLA Oscar preview. In the following article I will make my picks for the top 8 categories in this year's Academy Awards. Knowing a cursory amount of information about all of the nominees will make you sound cultured and intelligent at your Oscar party even while you guzzle down wine like Prohibition might be reinstated Monday morning.

I will be covering:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay

A few notes before we get started.

*These are not my favorites, these are who I think will win. I picked my top 10 movies of 2018 back in December.

*I have considered the political landscape while making these picks, which is why I think movies about women, gay men and racism will do well. Hollywood elites can't stop Republicans from buying AR-15s but they sure as shit can make flyover country feel uncomfortable by glorifying a movie about a gay guy fucking a peach.

Furthermore, for every category I will give you the safe pick and the gamble (if there is one)

Ready? I'm going to do these categories in no particular order.

Best supporting actor: 
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in The World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards (winner)
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Woody Harelson, Three Billboards
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (gamble)

Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri is about a woman who starts a vendetta with the local police department after her teenage daughter is murdered and the police are unable to solve the case. Sam Rockwell is an over the top racist cop who abuses his power, throws people through windows and makes fun of Peter Dinklage for being a dwarf, yet somehow in the end he is kind of the good guy?

This was the main backlash of the film, should an overtly awful character be given redemption in the era of #metoo and #blacklivesmatter? Fortunately people in Hollywood seem to like Sam Rockwell so much that they are willing to forgive it. Pair this with the fact that this is an extremely weak category this year and Rockwell should run away with it. His main challenge comes from Willem Dafoe in a movie that absolutely no one saw. Third place is likely Christopher Plummer in a performance that is strong but more compelling due to the fact that it was done in service of erasing Kevin Spacey from an already finished film.

Best Supporting Actress:
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (gamble)
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Allison Janney, I, Tonya (winner)
Mary J Blidge, Mudbound

Death, Taxes and Octavia Spencer getting a best supporting nomination for playing the spunky best friend! But this has always been a two woman race, two mothers who can't seem to get along with their daughters; two mainstay television actresses who have burst into the feature scene as of late with phenomenal character work. Allison Janney is an absolute monster as Tonya Harding's mother in I, Tonya whereas Laurie Metcalf's character only seems like one to her angsty daughter Lady Bird. Both Tonya and Lady Bird would have had such an easier time if they were just rich, my God the parallels of those two movies are striking.

Allison Janney has won every award this season and I think it's largely because people liked The West Wing more than Roseanne. You can't go wrong with either choice and I think this may be one of the closest races of the night, but if you like to play it conservative, go with Janney. I'll secretly be rooting for Laurie because my mom too played Dave Matthews CDs in the car sometimes.


Best Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Logan

Call Me By Your Name is a lovely film. It takes place in Northern Italy in the early 80's. There is nothing but Polo and Lacoste as far as the eye can see. Artie Hammer looks fucking great. Timothee Chalamet has a 'fuck attic' I want a 'fuck attic' The characters do nothing of substance all day but ride bikes, drink wine and play musical instruments. It's a dream come true. It also happens to be a coming of age film about gay love and as stated earlier I think the Oscar's is going to strive to be very inclusive this year. This is Call Me By Your Name's best shot to take home a major award.

And of course the Academy loves to stroke Aaron Sorkin's huge ego but Molly's Game was just ok. A comic book movie isn't going to win this award any time soon and The Disaster Artist lost all of its heat when the chick from The Breakfast Club accused James Franco of rape. Mudbound was awesome, but it's a Netflix movie and I still don't think the Academy is taking their dramatic features seriously yet. They will soon.

Best Original Screenplay
Get Out (Safe Play)
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water
The Big Sick
Lady Bird (Gamble)

Get Out has been getting massive heat in this category lately, but I'm saving its big win for another category. Lady Bird may not have hit home with everyone. I mean maybe I was the only person in 2004 who was listening to jam bands, trying to date and telling people I had a nicer house than I did. Regardless, after Natalie Portman's outburst at the Golden Globes a female filmmaker WILL be recognized this Sunday, only she will be recognized for writing. Greta Gerwig has had such a strong voice for the past decade and I'm glad she is finally starting to get some mainstream recognition. Again, this movie needs a big award, this is where it makes sense.

I really think the Oscars will spread the love this year. Three Billboards will do well in the acting categories and we'll see a bit later what I have in store for Jordan Peele.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (winner)
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get Out
PTA, Phantom Thread

This category is the lock of the century for GDT. The Shape of Water is a movie about a human fucking a fish. That is not an exaggeration. A woman and a fish spend over half of the movie having sex in a flooded bathroom. But...the film is so beautiful. It has a haunting score and presents a technical achievement up there with the other two most famous Mexican filmmakers Cuaron (Gravity) and Inarritu (Birdman.) People like GDT, they generally think this movie is weird but also extremely impressive. They will want to reward him in some way and the ambiguous category of Best Director fits.

The only other person that really has a shot is Nolan for Dunkirk, but that would be a real Hail Mary. Gerwig and Peele are both directing their first feature films and have extremely bright futures.

Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (winner)
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel Esq.

Just write down Gary Oldman and move on. He's like a 1/40 favorite at this point. Sure Timothee had a great year appearing in CMBYN and Lady Bird. (not as good a year as his CMBYN father did Michael Stuhlbarg was in CMBYN, The Post AND The Shape of Water. What a year! No oscar noms) DDL was fine in Phantom Thread and Daniel Kaluuya was not the best part of Get Out.

The real story here is that I would like to welcome Denzel Washington into the 'Thanks for Showing up" club. In a weak year, he (and Meryl Streep) will always be nominated for the 5th and final spot in an Oscar category because it's nice to have them around. Feel free to pregame the awards ceremony Denzel and just have a good time. Maybe sneak a flask in and create a meme. I'll be rooting for you.

TL;DR Wear 30 pounds of make up and play a historical figure = get an Oscar

Best Actress
Francess McDormand, Three Billboards (winner)
Saorise Ronan. Lady Bird
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post

This another snoozer of a category but it gives me an idea. There should be some award for someone who actually had to do something. Frances playing an angry parent doesn't seem as difficult as Margot Robbie learning how to fucking figure skate. Sure she had stunt doubles, but she was doing some stuff. Or how about Sally Hawkins masturbating in a bath tub for the world to see. TWICE! Seems like more dedication to her craft than Meryl toiling over whether to publish a news story for two hours.

Anyway, this isn't quite the lock of the century. Ronan has some heat. But back to my earlier point. How hard is it to play an angsty teen that gets sad when her boyfriend turns out to be gay. I feel like we've all been there.

Best Picture:

Three Billboards (Favorite)
The Shape of Water
Get Out (Upset)
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
Phantom Thread
Darkest Hour

ANY NOW FOR MY HOTTEST TAKE OF 2018?!!

White guilt is real.
I firmly grasp that I won the lottery by being born a tall white cis hetero male. And I'm fine with it. Hell, my family is taking me to Australia for two weeks and I just kinda think it's awesome. However, I am not a voting member of the academy. Most of those folks are from New York or Los Angeles and they have white guilt. They have it bad. Not to say that Get Out, a movie built on the pretension of said guilt, is undeserving, I just think in our current political climate it will get a bump. It doesn't hurt that the biggest movie in the world right now is a little thing called Black Panther and Oscar voting closes today. I think Get Out drifts on Black Panther's popularity a bit and JUST overtakes the movie that glorifies racism and the movie about fish fucking at the finish line.

Sure, this is a stretch. In fact, Get Out is squarely in third place in the best picture odds right now at 7/1. But La La Land was an overwhelming favorite last year and we all saw what happened there.

Picking an upset for best picture will keep you alive in your pool longer as well since the majority of the people will choose Billboards or Shape. A tie going into the evening's last category will keep things exciting for you.

I thought Get Out was a stellar film and I cannot wait to see what Jordan Peele does moving forward, and I'm excited to hear what he has to say when he gets a couple minutes to speak on the largest platform of his industry.

For all the technical awards I recommend picking chalk. You can find odds on Gold Derby. If you want one more upset, go The Square for foreign film. I'll be watching Sunday and if you need a gambling pool, hit me up and I'll set you up with the Scavuzzo/Trilla pool, the premier Culver City-based betting pool. I'll be watching Sunday night and I'll be wishing you luck on your picks. And I will remind you on more time that it's an absolute shame that Sing Street was cut completely out of the awards last year, because at the end of the day, the Oscars are bullshit.

Have fun everyone, may your picks be accurate and your white wine plentiful.